Why does the result change slightly with the same inputs?

Each run is 3,000 fresh random simulations, so exact numbers shift slightly while the overall picture stays stable.

Updated 2026-08-15

Aviator bankroll calculator: model your session before you play

Q: Why is the average outcome almost always below my starting bankroll?

The model reproduces the game's negative expected value (house edge around 3%) — over a long run a bankroll decreases on average regardless of cash-out tactic.

Enter a bankroll, bet size, and target cash-out — the tool runs 3,000 simulated sessions using the documented probability formula and shows how your bankroll behaves on average.

Aviator Hub editorial team Model based on the probability formula from our RTP and fairness page

It matters what this tool actually does. It does not predict the outcome of real Aviator rounds — that is technically impossible (see why "predictors" are a scam). The calculator below is a statistical simulation built on the game's documented mathematical model: it shows how a bankroll behaves on average, and how much it varies, across thousands of repeated sessions with the parameters you set. Any single real session will always differ from the simulation — that's variance, not a flaw in the model.

How to use the calculator

Set four parameters: starting bankroll, bet size per round, target cash-out multiplier (where auto cash-out collects the win), and rounds per session. Click "Run simulation" — the tool runs 3,000 independent session simulations and shows averaged statistics, one example bankroll curve, and the distribution of outcomes across all 3,000 attempts.

Starting bankroll

Bet per round

Target cash-out, x

Rounds per session

Check your inputs: bankroll and bet must be positive, bet cannot exceed bankroll, target cash-out must be greater than 1.0.

What the model shows

The tool uses the same approximate formula covered on our RTP and fairness page: the probability that a round reaches at least multiplier M is estimated as ≈0.97 / M. That formula is calibrated so the expected value of a single stake stays roughly the same — around −3% of its size — no matter which target multiplier you cash out at. So whatever target you set in the calculator, the average outcome across 3,000 simulations will keep gravitating toward the same overall loss percentage of total staked; only the spread (volatility) of results changes, which shows up clearly in how wide the outcome histogram is.

Low target cash-out (x1.2–x1.5)

A narrow histogram — session outcomes look similar to each other, low volatility.

Mid target cash-out (x2–x5)

A wider histogram — both meaningful profits and full busts occur.

High target cash-out (x10+)

A very wide distribution: most often a full loss of the session's stakes, but occasionally a multi-fold bankroll increase.

For a full breakdown of what cash-out tactics actually change (and what they don't), see our Aviator strategies page.

FAQ

Can I use this calculator to predict the next round?

No. The calculator has no connection to the real game server and no access to live rounds — it's a separate statistical model for educational purposes, showing average behavior over large samples, not a forecast for a specific upcoming round.

Why is the average outcome almost always below my starting bankroll?

Because the model faithfully reproduces the game's negative expected value (a house edge of around 3%) — over a long run of stakes, a bankroll decreases on average regardless of cash-out tactic. See expected value for more.

Why does the result change slightly each time I run it with the same inputs?

Each run is 3,000 fresh random simulations, so the exact numbers shift slightly between runs, just as in the real game. The overall picture — average loss percentage, shape of the distribution — stays stable.

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